How many residents will the Caribbean Netherlands have by 2035?
According to the most recent population forecast, the population of Bonaire is expected to reach 34.2 thousand in 2035, up by 29 percent from 2025. On St Eustatius a population of 3.3 thousand is expected in 2035 and on Saba 2.2 thousand, unchanged from 2025. The share of residents of the Caribbean Netherlands who were born on the islands, or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten, is expected to decrease on Bonaire, to slightly decrease on Saba and to increase on St Eustatius.
On 1 January 2025, there were 32 thousand people living in the Caribbean Netherlands, most of whom were living on Bonaire. The majority of population growth is also expected on Bonaire, as has been the case since 2011. According to the forecast, the island will have 29 percent more residents in 2035 than it has in 2025. An increase of 1 percent is expected on St Eustatius and Saba.
| Year | Bonaire | St Eustatius | Saba |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 15.68 | 3.61 | 1.80 |
| 2012 | 16.54 | 3.79 | 1.97 |
| 2013 | 17.41 | 3.90 | 1.99 |
| 2014 | 18.41 | 4.02 | 1.85 |
| 2015 | 18.91 | 3.88 | 1.81 |
| 2016 | 19.41 | 3.19 | 1.95 |
| 2017 | 19.18 | 3.25 | 2.01 |
| 2018 | 19.55 | 3.35 | 2.16 |
| 2019 | 20.10 | 3.14 | 1.92 |
| 2020 | 20.92 | 3.14 | 1.93 |
| 2021 | 21.75 | 3.14 | 1.92 |
| 2022 | 22.57 | 3.24 | 1.91 |
| 2023 | 24.09 | 3.29 | 2.04 |
| 2024 | 25.13 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| 2025 | 26.55 | 3.27 | 2.16 |
| 2026 | 27.64 | 3.26 | 2.13 |
| 2027 | 28.67 | 3.26 | 2.14 |
| 2028 | 29.56 | 3.26 | 2.15 |
| 2029 | 30.30 | 3.26 | 2.15 |
| 2030 | 31.01 | 3.26 | 2.15 |
| 2031 | 31.69 | 3.26 | 2.16 |
| 2032 | 32.34 | 3.27 | 2.16 |
| 2033 | 32.97 | 3.27 | 2.17 |
| 2034 | 33.58 | 3.28 | 2.18 |
| 2035 | 34.17 | 3.30 | 2.18 |
The population of the Caribbean Netherlands is ageing
Since 2011, an increasing share of the population consists of people aged 65 years or older, and the share is expected to increase further by 2035. According to the forecast, the percentage of residents aged 65 or older will increase from 14 to 19 percent on Bonaire, and from 15 to 20 percent on both St Eustatius and Saba between 2025 and 2035.
| 0 to 19 years | 20 to 64 years | 65 years and over | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonaire | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 18 | 63 | 19 |
| 2025 | 21 | 65 | 14 |
| 2018 | 23 | 65 | 12 |
| 2011 | 25 | 65 | 10 |
| St Eustatius | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 23 | 57 | 20 |
| 2025 | 23 | 62 | 15 |
| 2018 | 24 | 64 | 12 |
| 2011 | 25 | 67 | 9 |
| Saba | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 17 | 63 | 20 |
| 2025 | 19 | 66 | 15 |
| 2018 | 17 | 70 | 12 |
| 2011 | 21 | 69 | 10 |
Country of birth of residents of the Caribbean Netherlands
The share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten, is expected to decrease on Bonaire from an average of 55 percent in the period 2018−2025 to 44 percent in 2035, while on St Eustatius it is expected to increase from 57 to 63 percent. On Saba it is expected to decrease slightly from 46 to 44 percent. According to the forecast, in 2035 half of the population of Saba will be born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands. On Bonaire and St Eustatius, this share is expected to be smaller: 39 and 34 percent, respectively.
| Caribbean Netherlands, Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten (Dutch part) | European Netherlands | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonaire | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 44 | 17 | 39 |
| Average 2018-2025 | 55 | 16 | 29 |
| St Eustatius | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 63 | 3 | 34 |
| Average 2018-2025 | 57 | 6 | 37 |
| Saba | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 44 | 6 | 50 |
| Average 2018-2025 | 46 | 5 | 48 |
Most likely trajectory and uncertainties
In order to calculate the future trajectory of the population of the Caribbean Netherlands, Statistics Netherlands uses a simulation model that incorporates assumptions regarding births, deaths, immigration and emigration in the future. Migration to and from other countries is the most important component of population change on the three islands, and is particularly subject to fluctuations. In all probability, the actual population will therefore deviate from the forecast, which therefore remains uncertain.
Sources
More information on the population forecast
Relevant items
Dashboard – Population forecast (Dutch only)