How many inhabitants will the Caribbean Netherlands have in 2035?
According to the most recent Population forecast, the population of the Caribbean Netherlands (Bonaire, St Eustatius and Saba) is expected to reach 36.1 thousand in 2035, up by 19 percent from 2024. Bonaire’s population will grow the fastest and in 2035 it will also have the oldest population. The share of inhabitants of the Caribbean Netherlands who were born on the islands, or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten, is expected to decrease on Bonaire and Saba until 2035 and to increase on St Eustatius.
On 1 January 2024, there were 30.4 thousand people living in the Caribbean Netherlands, most of whom were living on Bonaire. The majority of population growth is also expected on Bonaire, as has been the case since 2011. According to the forecast, the island will have 21 percent more inhabitants in 2035 than it has in 2024. An increase of 5 percent is expected on St Eustatius and 10 percent on Saba.
| Year | Bonaire | St Eustatius | Saba |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 15.68 | 3.61 | 1.80 |
| 2012 | 16.54 | 3.79 | 1.97 |
| 2013 | 17.41 | 3.90 | 1.99 |
| 2014 | 18.41 | 4.02 | 1.85 |
| 2015 | 18.91 | 3.88 | 1.81 |
| 2016 | 19.41 | 3.19 | 1.95 |
| 2017 | 19.18 | 3.25 | 2.01 |
| 2018 | 19.55 | 3.35 | 2.16 |
| 2019 | 20.10 | 3.14 | 1.92 |
| 2020 | 20.92 | 3.14 | 1.93 |
| 2021 | 21.75 | 3.14 | 1.92 |
| 2022 | 22.57 | 3.24 | 1.91 |
| 2023 | 24.09 | 3.29 | 2.04 |
| 2024 | 25.13 | 3.20 | 2.06 |
| 2025 | 26.20 | 3.23 | 2.05 |
| 2026 | 26.87 | 3.26 | 2.07 |
| 2027 | 27.39 | 3.28 | 2.13 |
| 2028 | 27.81 | 3.29 | 2.15 |
| 2029 | 28.22 | 3.29 | 2.17 |
| 2030 | 28.62 | 3.30 | 2.19 |
| 2031 | 29.01 | 3.31 | 2.20 |
| 2032 | 29.39 | 3.33 | 2.21 |
| 2033 | 29.75 | 3.34 | 2.23 |
| 2034 | 30.11 | 3.36 | 2.24 |
| 2035 | 30.45 | 3.38 | 2.26 |
The population of the Caribbean Netherlands is ageing
In 2024, 14 percent of the population on Bonaire was 65 years or older, compared to 10 percent in 2011. The share of older people is expected to increase to 20 percent in 2035. Bonaire will be the island with the oldest population in the Caribbean Netherlands.
On St Eustatius, 14 percent of the population was 65 years or older in 2024. Saba was the island with the oldest population in 2024, with 16 percent of inhabitants being 65 years or older. On both islands, the share of people aged 65 or older is expected to increase to 19 percent in 2035.
| 0 to 19 years | 20 to 64 years | 65 years and over | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonaire | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 5.74 | 18.59 | 6.16 |
| 2024 | 5.18 | 16.38 | 3.57 |
| 2018 | 4.44 | 12.69 | 2.42 |
| 2011 | 3.93 | 10.25 | 1.50 |
| St Eustatius | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 0.81 | 1.92 | 0.65 |
| 2024 | 0.74 | 2.00 | 0.46 |
| 2018 | 0.82 | 2.14 | 0.40 |
| 2011 | 0.90 | 2.40 | 0.31 |
| Saba | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 0.37 | 1.47 | 0.42 |
| 2024 | 0.39 | 1.35 | 0.32 |
| 2018 | 0.37 | 1.52 | 0.27 |
| 2011 | 0.37 | 1.24 | 0.18 |
Country of birth of inhabitants of the Caribbean Netherlands
Over the period 2018–2024, 56 percent of residents of Bonaire, 57 percent of residents of St Eustatius and 47 percent of residents of Saba were born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten. The largest decrease in the share of residents born on these islands is expected on Bonaire; a decrease is also expected on Saba, while an increase is expected on St Eustatius. In the period 2018–2024, nearly 16 percent of the population of Bonaire was born in the European Netherlands, which is a higher percentage than on St Eustatius and Saba. This situation is also expected in the future. Saba will then have a larger proportion of inhabitants born elsewhere, while on Bonaire and St Eustatius the proportion will be smaller and almost the same.
| Caribbean Netherlands, Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten | European Netherlands | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonaire | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 49 | 16 | 35 |
| Average 2018-2024 | 56 | 16 | 29 |
| St Eustatius | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 61 | 4 | 35 |
| Average 2018-2024 | 57 | 6 | 37 |
| Saba | . | . | . |
| Forecast 2035 | 42 | 4 | 54 |
| Average 2018-2024 | 47 | 5 | 48 |
Most likely trajectory and uncertainties
In order to calculate the future trajectory of the population of the Caribbean Netherlands, Statistics Netherlands uses a simulation model that uses assumptions regarding births, deaths, immigration and emigration in the future. Migration to and from other countries is the most important component of population change on the three islands, and is particularly subject to fluctuations. In all probability, the actual population will therefore deviate from the forecast and the forecasts therefore remain uncertain.
Source
More information on population forecast
Relevant items
News item – Population of the Caribbean Netherlands up by nearly a thousand in 2023